Hype Cycle

Zwar mehr ein Technologie-Adaptionsmodell als ein Hype im siggi-beckerschen Sinn aber dennoch grossartig: Gartners hype cycle model

1. “Technology Trigger”
The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations”
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. “Trough of Disillusionment”
Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. “Slope of Enlightenment”
Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. “Plateau of Productivity”
A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market

Impact-Analysen / bullshit-bingo deluxe gibt’s auch fürs Web 2.0 (Social Network Analysis, Ajax, Collective intelligence und Mashup),
fürs Real World Web (Location-aware technologies, Location-aware applications und Sensor Mesh Networks),
und für den Bereich Softwarebau (Event-driven Architecture, Model-driven Architecture und das Corporate Semantic Web)