buried in this scenario of a takeover of superhuman artificial intelligence are five assumptions which, when examined closely, are not based on any evidence.
- Artificial intelligence is already getting smarter than us, at an exponential rate.
- We’ll make AIs into a general purpose intelligence, like our own.
- We can make human intelligence in silicon.
- Intelligence can be expanded without limit.
- Once we have exploding superintelligence it can solve most of our problems.
In contradistinction to this orthodoxy, I find the following five heresies to have more evidence to support them.
- Intelligence is not a single dimension, so “smarter than humans” is a meaningless concept.
- Humans do not have general purpose minds, and neither will AIs.
- Emulation of human thinking in other media will be constrained by cost.
- Dimensions of intelligence are not infinite.
- Intelligences are only one factor in progress.
Kevin Kelly mit einem schönen Text über den Stand und das Potential von Artificial intelligence.